Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
